Glassnode advises that we are in a transition cycle lasting approximately 221 days. Still, it is estimated that barely halfway through the cycle will be reached before a new bull market begins.
Accordingly analytics company, A transition cycle is complete when the current price surpasses the peak made in the previous bull market. That is, to complete the current transition cycle, Bitcoin must surpass $69,000.
Previous cycles have lasted between 459 and 770 days, so it is estimated that it is still too early to complete the transition.
Additionally, Glassnode believes that Bitcoin’s price has been in a state of lethargy, with occasional price spikes like those seen recently among institutional investment capitalists who have converged on Bitcoin, according to CriptoNoticias. this event increased the price from $24,000 to $30,800, in just a week. Although they are not usually very rare, volatility has been reduced.
Halving and market transitions
Price cycle transitions are usually accompanied by halvings, i.e. reducing the reward per block mined in Bitcoin. With almost 300 days left until the next halving and Glassnode understands the dynamics of past transitions points out that this may be contributing to investor “apathy”..
The analytics company explained how more and more bitcoins are being sent to private wallets, reached all-time highs and there are fewer and fewer bitcoins on the exchange. Because of this, it notes that about 15.2 million BTC are in the hands of private wallets, while only 2.5 million BTC are inside exchanges.
Glassnode concludes in its study that while volatility and liquidity are at multi-month lows, the important factor of BTC “wealth transfer” from exchanges to homes has been a constant throughout this cycle. This could have a significant impact on the price of BTC in the next bull market..
However, Glassnode defines that, taking previous cycles as a reference, The “transition phase” can last between 8 and 18 monthsusing previous cycles as a reference and that the current price is less than 50% of its all-time high of over $69,000 in 2021.