The European indices, except for the Ibex 35, have exceeded the March highs: the Euro Stoxx 50 is at its high for the year, as is the CAC 40, the DAX made it last Tuesday… Today against the Ibex 35 it was the only European index , which opened positively, mainly supported by Bankinter shares. Will it be today when selectivity marks new yearly highs?
This depends on the development of the European indices themselves. The DAX is going down today for the first time in a long time and still we’ll see how it ends because I don’t think the market wants to go down as there isn’t a single day that whatever happens and we have those Data we have or the results we have where the markets are not going up because we think the ECB will definitely come to the rescue. The CAC 40 marked a new historical high yesterday, but out of the last six days, five have marked a new high. What is clear is that at some point this will no longer be the case and there will be a significant correction, but for the moment all European indices, including the IBEX 35, are bullish. Furthermore, today, already at intraday highs, the Ibex 35 has attacked those 9,525 which are the highs for March and I think that today, once the European markets recover, it can probably close at that level or even for at . For the CAC 40 it could have a range of 7-8% and the only level to consider is 7,400, for the EURO STOXX 50 the area around 4,330 and for the DAX the area around 15,700, as long as they are up everything is abundant in the same scenario .
American indices are trading flatter than European ones: the Dow Jones is up 2% and the S&P500 is up 8%, while the Nasdaq is up almost 20%. Is the European stock market stronger than the American one?
Yes, without a doubt, and it’s surprising to me because not so long ago, a few weeks ago, I said exactly the opposite and, technically speaking, thought that American indices had more potential than European ones, but not now. On the contrary, once the Europeans break the resistance implied by the March highs, a path of “color and imagination” opens up for them, while the American indices face some resistance. We see the most important in the S&P 500 in the 4,200 area, which has more or less already attacked it at yesterday’s intraday highs. And for now, it serves to stop the price from rising; If it crosses 4,200 we would certainly go to the 4,320 which were the highs from August last year and that’s the 0.618% Fibonacci of the whole drop from the all time highs then that’s the key to development not short term but yes medium term The Nasdaq remains well above the previous relative maximum, above 12,870, so it has all possibilities open to look for 13,700, but it does not accompany, it is an important momentary divergence, the fact that the Nasdaq Composite cannot break the February and April highs. The Philadelphia semiconductor can’t either, but then again, the Philadelphia semiconductor is up 51% since October. And the Russell 2000 is tucked into the side, but in low ranges. That is, they currently offer more false signals and a lack of directionality in the calculation of all indices in the American market than in the European market.
Bankinter soars more than 5% in the stock market after it released figures for 1T2023 that saw its earnings rise nearly 20%. Will it surpass last March’s highs in the short term? 8.38 How do you see the technical aspect of Bankinter?
That should be his goal, but he’s already restricting the increases, which actually reached 5%, to the point where he’s at right now in the opening moment, and if he were to close like that, he’d leave us a relatively dangerous doji . Bankinter has a bigger potential path than, say, BBVA to start buying now, but simply because BBVA has done so well and that it has already resulted in practically 1.5% – 2% of March’s maximum now we can’t buy more. Something very similar is happening at Banco Santander, which is also pretty close to the March highs. I just don’t see Bankinter as an option, at the moment I would prefer Banco Sabadell which has very significant potential but most importantly has moved a lot from the previous relative maximum and has greater potential. However, among the Spanish banks, I would like to highlight Unicaja Banco in particular, as it is recovering very well and has the potential to go in search of the 1.15 or even 1.20 zone. But all of this will of course depend on what the European Banking Sector Index does; If it stays above 109, since it’s the 0.618% Fibonacci of the entire drop from the March highs, its only target is the 120 zone, so we’re talking a predictable 10% run. And that’s what can give the Ibex 35 a tailwind. If that happens, if the banking index holds well above 109 – 110, it becomes the best option and even better than certain stocks in the industry, because within that there are also stocks in the European market that are doing great in the industry, like ING or BNP or some others like Unicredit which have practically reached their March highs.
Are we late to Banco Santander and BBVA?
Yes I think so. In other words, while the banking sector in Europe as a whole still has a 10% gain to reach the March highs, at 7.02am this morning the BBVA, which has peaked, is practically staying at 0.6% of the highs is, it’s practically already there. Obviously resistance cannot be bought and we are hitting too serious a resistance. In the case of Banco Santander, slightly less but also with a similar aspect, March maximum at 3.85 and us at 3.63; However, there might still be some room to maneuver as it appears that it would also like to start filling or closing the huge bearish gap left by the March 10 United States banking crisis, and it might be one of the possible purchase options. . Of course we will wait for the European banking sector to close above 110.
On the other hand, the two steel companies in the Ibex are falling by a percentage point today. What key levels should we keep in mind when we are within ArcelorMittal and Acerinox?
Acerinox is currently down around 0.6%, but it’s one of the stocks I like the most in the Spanish market, considering that the Spanish market can keep going up, which I think is possible; Anything to stay above 9.50 in the close is plentiful in a scenario looking for the relative high so far at 10.45, so it seems like a good option to me in the short-term. Not so ArcelorMittal, which has a more diffuse behavior or technical aspect in the sense that it has not been able to exceed the previous relative maximum very close to 28 and has been there for two days; Maybe we get an infidelity between 28 and 25.70 and it has to come out somewhere in that range to be able to think of other things. Acerinox seems like a good option to me, but not ArcelorMittal.